Africa is the poorest continent on earth. 490 million Africans live in extreme poverty – defined as living on less than 1.90 USD a day. Despite billions of dollars in overseas aid and investment, Africa remains mostly undeveloped, compared to the rest of the world. But will it always be like this? Will Africa ever develop?
Africa will develop if challenges such as conflict, poor education and healthcare, and climate change can be overcome. However, Africa’s development is likely to be uneven, with some countries and regions pulling ahead whilst others remain under-developed.
Now we have an overview of whether Africa will develop, let’s take a more detailed look at how the continent is likely to progress, and what challenges African countries face in development.
Africa’s Development: Past, Present and Future
In order to answer the question ‘will Africa develop’ we need to look back at how Africa has progressed over the previous decades and compare this to today. We then need to look at projections of how Africa will likely develop in the coming decades.
When assessing development, a number of key indicators are used. We’ve applied these to Africa in the past, present, and future to assess how the continent has developed, and if it will continue to.
| Indicator | 1960 | 2020 | 2060 |
| Population | 227 million people | 1.21 billion people | 2.8 billion people |
| Youth Population | 50 million | 250 million | 500 million |
| GDP Per Capita | 175 USD | 6,058 USD | 56,171 USD |
| Child Mortality | 283 per 1000 births | 43 per 1000 births | 32 per 1000 births |
| Life Expectancy | 42 years | 64 years | 70 years |
| Urban Population | 14% | 47% | 68% |
This breakdown clearly shows the enormous progress Africa has made in development since 1960. But will this continue? As we can see, projections show that Africa will develop significantly between now and 2060.
How Will Africa Develop?
Now we’ve had an overview of Africa’s development progress, let’s go deeper into each key indicator and discuss its importance to development and what it can tell us about whether African is on a path to prosperity.
There will likely be significant development in Africa in the coming decades. However, development across Africa is likely to be uneven, with some countries and regions developing more and others probably failing to progress.
With that said, there are a number of key indicators that need to be assess if we’re going to understand how Africa may develop…
The first major indicator that must be assessed to understand if Africa will develop is population growth. Increases in population often correlate with improved development as economies grow with more people and workforces increase. Africa’s population is currently 1.21 billion people. It is projected to be around 2.8 billion people by 2060. This is likely to drive development across the continent.
A second crucial trend that must be considered when looking at Africa’s’ future development is its demographic. Africa has an incredibly young population – the average age is just 19. This young population is expected to continue to grow over the next decades creating what is a known as a ‘youth bulge’. Young people drive economic development as they seek education, innovation and create jobs. This is a key indicator that Africa is going to develop in the near future.
GDP per capita measures the average income in a country or region. Africa’s GBP per capita has increased enormously since 1960 – this show that there has been significant development. As incomes rise, people become more prosperous, and economies grow. If per capita income in Africa increases in-line with projections, there will be significant wealth created across the continent.
Another key indicator of development is child mortality. As countries develop, their healthcare and child nutrition improves, resulting in fewer infant deaths. The child mortality rate in Africa is currently 43 deaths in every 1000 births. However, this has improved significantly in recent decades, from 283 deaths in every 1000 births in 1960. If this trend continues then it will show that many parts of Africa will have developed.
Life expectancy is also a key indicator of development. As countries become more prosperous life expectancy increases. This is due to factors including better healthcare, food security, nutrition, and education. The average life expectancy in Africa is currently 64 years. This has increased from 42 in 1960. Life expectancy is likely to continue to increase as Africa develops.
A key data point that must be assessed when discussing Africa’s development, and if it will continue, is urbanization. As countries develop, more people move into cities looking for work and improved living conditions. Currently, 47% of African’s live in cities. However, over the coming decade the urban populations in many African countries is expected to explode. This will drive development, as long as African countries can create dynamic urban economies.
Is Africa Actually Developing?
So, we’ve looked at key indicators that can be used to measure development in Africa and assessed how the continent developed against these from 1960 to the present. We’ve also looked at future projections to see how prosperous Africa might be in 50 years. However, now we need to ask a fundamental question… is Africa actually developing? Is progress being made on the continent?
There is significant development in many parts of Africa. African countries such as Kenya, Tanzania and Benin have recently become middle-income countries. However, there are still parts of Africa that remain under-developed and where development progress is slow.
Essentially, development in Africa is a mixed picture, with some countries developing at a faster rate than others. However, apart from some countries, such as South Sudan, Central African Republic and Somalia that are failing in many ways to develop, broadly the continent is developing rapidly.
There are several key factors that must be looked at when assessing the current progress of development across Africa. Let’s take a look at some…
Economic growth is a major factor in development. As economies grow, people become wealthier, businesses expand, and governments collect more taxes. In 2019, Africa’s economy grew by 3.4%. Africa also has some of the fastest growing economies in the world, including Ghana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia, where economies grew by 8.7%, 7.8% and 7.7% respectively in 2019. If economies across the continent continue to grow at this speed, there will be many countries that develop rapidly.
Another key factor to look at when assessing development in Africa is government revenue. This is how much money the government collects in taxes. As government revenue increases, more money can be spent on public services. Mozambique has increased its government revenue by nearly 50% since 1992. The Liberian government has grown its revenue from 6% of GBP to 20% since 2003. Government revenue is crucial for development and this shows African countries are making progress.
Foreign investment is foundational to development. If a country is to prosper, it needs foreign capital to be invested in its companies. Africa has historically lacked significant foreign direct investment and this has prevented many countries on the continent from becoming wealthy. Foreign investment in Africa fell dramatically in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and has yet to recover. This is likely to hinder development.
Many African countries have a negative trade balance. This means they import more than they export. This pushes down wages as foreign goods cost more to import and high skilled jobs producing goods for the international market are limited. The trade deficit of many African countries is holding back development.
A final factor to consider when regarding the current rate of development across Africa is industrialization. As countries become more industrialized, they produce greater wealth as higher skilled jobs and more advanced technologies play a bigger role in the economy. Some major urban areas in Africa are becoming more industrialized. However, the continent remains the least industrialized in the world and there is slow progress towards industrialization in many parts.
What Could Stop Africa From Developing?
The final question that must be considered when asking if Africa will develop in the coming decades is what factors are holding back development across the continent. There are a huge range of factors that potentially prevent development in Africa, but we’ve highlighted a few keys ones that African countries must address in order to prosper:
- Conflict
- Climate change
- Lack of education
- Access to quality healthcare
Now, let’ take a quick look at each of these…
Conflict
Africa has had a staggering 108 individual conflicts since 1960. There are currently 25 active wars on the continent. Armed conflict is projected to fall in Africa, which will help development. However, active efforts must be made to bring peace in many parts of Africa if development targets are to be met.
Climate Change
Climate change is projected to have an enormous impact on Africa, and currently the continent is ill-prepared. If Africa is to develop, countries on the continent must overcome the challenges that the climate crisis brings and successfully transform their economies towards greener technologies.
Lack of Education
Improving access to, and the quality of, education is going to be key for Africa’s development. The continent currently has more than 30 million children who do not go to school. For countries to develop they need an educated workforce. If African countries can get more children into school, they will be better placed to build wealth in the coming decades.
Access to Quality Healthcare
Many African countries need to improve their healthcare sectors if the continent is to develop. Quality healthcare is key for development as it increases participation in the workforce and drives economic growth. Limited quality healthcare across Africa means more people are economically inactive due to poor health or caring for sick family members. If Africa can invest in healthcare, then the continent will develop.