For over the last two centuries, France has been one of the most prominent, and important, nations in the world. However, the global political and economic system is changing rapidly. France, like many countries, faces potential crises that could threaten its position as one of the world’s leading nations. In fact, many would argue that France is already in decline. But is it?
France is not declining. The nation retains one of the most prominent roles in Europe and is a major global economy. France is also a significant military power. The country has a growing population and the institutions needed to prevent its decline.
…but that’s just an overview. In order to understand if France is in decline, we need to look in a bit more detail.
Why France Isn’t Declining?
Many people, including many French people, would argue that France is not declining. Although a nation’s decline is mostly subjective, in fact there are a number of indicators that show that France is not in decline. These include:
- France has a strong economy
- France has a growing population
- France retains a major role in Europe
- France is a siginifcant global power
Now let’s take a quick look at each of these points in-turn…
France Has A Strong Economy
A first reason why France is not in decline is because it has a strong economy. With a GDP of 2.95 trillion USD, France is the seventh largest economy in the world. This is especially impressive for a nation of only 67 million people. France also has a per capita income of 51,600 USD – this is essentially the average amount a French person earns in a year. This makes French people wealthy by global standards. These factors combined show that France is not in decline.
France has posted economic growth in all but four years since 1960. The economy of France is also highly diversified, with key sectors including manufacturing, computer sciences, automotives, food and beverages, agriculture and pharmaceuticals. It clear that France will not lose its position as a global leader any time soon.
France Has A Growing Population
A second reason why France is not declining is because the country’s population is growing. A key metric used to measure a nation’s decline is its population. If large numbers of people are leaving a country, or a nation has a low birth-rate, it is often in serious decline. However, France’s population has grown by around 0.2% in recent years. This means the country is definitely not in decline.
France Retains A Major Role In Europe
Another reason why France is not in decline is because of its prominent role in Europe. France was one of the founding members of the European Economic Community (EEC) – the precursor to the European Union. Alongside Germany, France is seen as one the leading nations of EU – instrumental in setting the policy direction for the bloc. The important role France plays in Europe, and the leading position it retains within the EU, shows the country is not in decline.
France Is A Significant Global Power
A final reason why France is not declining is because the nation is still a major global power. France has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council – giving it veto rights and a highly influential position. France has 162 embassies around the world, and is a major diplomatic player. France is also a member of NATO, and has alliances with many key nations. These factors all show that France is not in decline.
What Could Be Causing The Decline Of France?
Although, as we said, it is clear that France is not in decline, there is no country in the world that cannot fall from its strong position if certain factors occur. It is possible that France could decline in the near future. If it did, the follow factors are likely to contribute:
- France’s aging population
- Frances’s share of global GDP is shrinking
- There are major political divisions within France
- France is becoming more economically unequal
Next, we’ll review each of these briefly…
France Has An Aging Population
One reason why some may say that France is in decline is because the country has an aging population. The average person in France is 42 years old. This makes it one of the oldest countries in the world. Having an aging population can be a sign of a nation’s decline, as it can put it under economic strain as more people leave the workforce and the proportion of people on social security vs those paying into the system becomes distorted. With that said, France has a growing population, which will likely offset its aging populous and prevent the country’s decline.
Frances’s Share Of Global GDP Is Shrinking
Another factor people cite when stating that France is declining is because it’s overall share of global GDP is falling. France makes up around 2.2% of the world economy. This is much smaller than nations such as the United States or China. However, France is also a much smaller country than many major economies, so in fact the proportion of global GDP it does hold is impressive. Also, France’s share of global GDP is falling mainly because other nations are growing economically. France still remains a rich and advanced economy, meaning that it is not in a decline.
There Are Major Political Divisions Within France
Many people say the major political divisions in France are one reason why the country is declining. It is true that French politics is fractious, and that more people are voting for extreme right- and left-wing parties. However, France has a robust democratic political system, which can withstand the turbulent period the nation may be going through.
France Is Becoming More Economically Unequal
A final reason often stated for why France is in decline is because the country is becoming more unequal. France has long prided itself on its social welfare system and economic equality. Although many French would lament the country’s move towards great inequality, France is far from the most unequal country in the world. In fact, France is a highly equal society by global standards – this is another example of why the country is not declining.
Is France Going To Decline?
Some people argue that France is already in decline. Others are more positive, but do point to several factors that could indicate France beginning to fall from its prominent global position over the coming decades. So, is it inevitable that France declines?
France is not going to decline. Although the nation’s position on the global stage may diminish compared to the major superpower, France will almost certainly always be a major nation. It’s economy, population, military strength and utilisation of soft power ensures France is will not fully decline.
As we’ve covered, there are number of factors that mean that France is unlikely to decline. As long as the country can retain its strong democratic institutions, ensures a diverse and inclusive economy, and continues to provide good education and healthcare to all its citizens, then France is not gong to fall as a nation.
Can France Stop Its Decline?
France is not in decline. In fact, as we’ve covered, there are a number of factors that demonstrate that France is likely to continue to be a major global power. However, all nations face the risk of decline. So, how could France prevent its fall from its position as one of the leading nations in the world?
Political stability combined with continued economic and population growth will be vital to stop France declining. The country also needs to continuously invest in education, healthcare and infrastructure if it is to remain a major global power.
When a nation begins to decline it is often due to a series on ingrained challenges that the pollical system of that country has been unable to address. France’s political system is highly accountable, meaning that it can adapt as changes as required. It is extremely unlikely that France would see a major change to its political system, or economic model. This means that France is able to stave-off decline and its highly likely to retain its position as a global leader going forward.