In 1980, there was perhaps a dozen or more communist countries in the world. By the year 2000, there were less than six. As we moved into the 21st Century it looked like communism was in decline. However, in recent years, the situation in many ways has changed. Although there haven’t been any new communist countries since the 1980s, actually there are some countries that, albeit in unlikely scenarios, could become communist…
1. Russia
A first country that could become communist is Russia.
Russia was the largest state in the Soviet Union. Founded in 1917 by Vladimir Lenin, the USSR was the first, and largest, communist country in the world until its dissolution in 1991. Russia is no-longer a communist country, but there is still significant support for communism in the country.
The Communist Party of Russia has 449 seats in Russian regional legislators. At a recent election the Communist Party gained 15 seats in the Duma – Russia’s parliament. Although many would argue that elections in Russia are far from being free and fair, this still shows that a proportion of the Russian population still support communism.
Across Russia, there are those that are nostalgic for the days of the USSR. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, wealth generation in Russia has been highly unequal – with the creation of an oligarchy enjoying immense wealth whilst the majority of the population are poor by global standards. There are those in Russia that see a return to communism as a way to rectify this inequality.
As well as the people in Russia who feel a return to communism would be a way to tackle widespread poverty in the country, more people in Russia lament the fall of the Soviet Union and the loss of Russia’s global influence. More people are likely to support a return to communism if it was felt that it would restore Russia as a great power.
Currently, it is unlikely that Russia would become communist again. However, as the economic and political situation in Russia deteriorates, it is impossible to tell. The outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine may also have profound affects on where the country goes. There is still a small chance that Russia becomes a communist country again.
2. Taiwan
A second country that could become communist in the coming years is Taiwan.
Taiwan is a self-governing island about 100 miles off the coast of mainland China. From 1683 to 1895, Taiwan was ruled as part of the Chinese Empire. However, following the defeat of the Nationalists in the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the Kuomintang forces retreated to Taiwan. There they continued to claim to be the legitimate government and declared authority over the entire country as the Republic of China.
In 1949, Chairman Mao declared the founding of the Communist People’s Republic of China (PRC). As the island of Taiwan had previously been part of the Chinese Empire, Mao extended his claim to the island and declared it under the rule of PRC.
Communist Chinese forces have never invaded Taiwan. However, in recent years many international observers feel this could be more likely. The current ruler of China, Xi Jinping, has increased his rhetoric and proclaimed his intention to extend communist rule to Taiwan. If China invaded, and succeeded, then Taiwan would become communist.
3. Bolivia
A third country that could become communist is Bolivia.
Bolivia is one of the countries in the world with the most communist members in parliament – that is not a fully communist country. In the lower house of the Bolivian parliament, 75 of 130 seats are held by anti-capitalist or communist members. In the upper house of the Bolivian parliament, 21 of 36 seats are held by communists.
The current government in Bolivia is the Movement for Socialism party. They are a left-wing Marxist group. The Movement for Socialism has been in power in Bolivia since 2006.
The Movement for Socialism government in Bolivia aims to raise living standards for poor people in the country, especially in rural areas. Although officially anti-capitalist and pro-communist, so far, the Movement for Socialism government in Bolivia has not transformed the country into a communist state. However, there is a clearly widespread support for communism in Bolivia – as expressed by the continued election successes of the Movement for Socialism. Should events in the country change, there is a good chance Bolivia could become a fully communist country.
4. India
India is a further example of a country that could become communist.
After gaining independence from Britain in 1947, India adopted a range of socialist-style policies. These aimed to lift the population out of poverty and address the injustices of colonialism. Although officially a member of the non-aligned movement, India retained a highly centralized economy with significant state control. Although never a communist nation, socialist ideals still today remain strong in India.
There is widespread support for communism in parts of India. In fact, the states of West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala have all had democratically elected Marxist governments at one time. The Communist Party of India has around 650,000 members, further demonstrating a degree of popular support for socialism in the country.
As well as democratic support for communism in India, the country also sees a significant Maoist insurgency. With between 6,000 and 9,500 members, the People’s Liberation Guerrilla Army fights against the Indian government with the aim of establishing a communist state in India. Although a conflict of low-level intensity, the fact that Marxist armed groups are able to sustain a long-running insurgency in India further shows a degree of support for communism.
Although it is unlikely that either through the ballot-box or through armed struggle that India would become a socialist state, major changes in the country or global economy could see the public support for Marxism turn India Communist.
5. Kurdistan
Kurdistan is another example of a country that could become communist.
Ok, so Kurdistan isn’t actually a country. The Kurdish people – spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, are the largest ethnic group in the world without a national state. Since 1984 Turkish Kurds have fought a long-running insurgency against the Turkish state – the main goal to be the creation of an independent Kurdish state. The leading group in this insurgency, the PKK, are a left-wing communist militia fighting to create an independent socialist Kurdistan.
Following the onset of the Syrian Civil War, Kurds in north east Syria formed the de-facto independent state of Rojava. Syrian Kurdish forces are closely aligned to the Turkish PKK and share their communist ideology. Rojava is run along many socialist principles. If Rojava become an independent state, it would likely be the newest communist country in the world.
In Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is an autonomous region in the north of the country. It is currently governed by the Kurdish Democratic Party. Although less communist aligned than the PKK or YPG/YPJ in Syria, there are still major left-wing parties operating in Iraqi Kurdistan.
In Iran, the Kurdish region has limited autonomy. However, there are a number of Kurdish Communist armed groups operating in the country.
For over a century, Kurdish people have fought for a united independent state. Since the 1970s, the leading Kurdish movements across the Middle Eats have had communist ideologies. If an independent Kurdistan was ever created, it would almost certainly be a communist country.
6. Colombia
A final country that could become communist is Colombia.
Colombia has a long history of armed communist insurgency. The FARC – Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, operated from 1964. They had widespread support from poor communities across the country. The FARC fought against the Colombian state and aimed to establish a communist state.
In 2016, the FARC signed a peace treaty with the Colombian government that saw the group officially disarm in exchange for increased investment in the rural areas they represented. Although many on both sides see major floors in this deal, it does appear be holding. However, many FARC members have not stopped campaigning for the establishment of a communis state in Colombia, only now they do so through peaceful means.
The FARC may have officially disbanded; however, Colombia still has a range of left-wing armed groups fighting to make the country communist. The FARC-EP broke away from the FARC following the 2016 peace-treaty and continue to used armed violence to try and establish a socialist state in Colombia.
It is unlikely that the communist armed groups in Colombia will succeed in overthrowing the government and establishing a socialist state, or that the democratic attempts by ex-FARC members to turn Colombia communist will succeed. However, there is clearly still strong support for communism in Colombia.