As China has become more powerful, fears have grown over it’s domination of East Asia. Although relations between China and Japan are not close, they remain warmer than with other countries in region. However, territorial disputes and the risk of conflict over Taiwan means that a war between China and Japan is a real a risk. But, if a conflict did arise, could we see China actually invade Japan?
It is very unlikely China would invade Japan. Although tensions in East Asia are rising, Japan’s economic strength combined with its alliance with the United States mean that a Chinese invasion is highly improbable.
With that said, China threatens Taiwan, a Japanese ally, and is becoming more exertive in land disputes and disagreements about trade with Japan. If a conflict did break-out in East Asia, Japan would likely fight against China.
Is China’s Army Strong Enough To Invade Japan?
To answer the question if China could invade Japan, we need to assess if China has the military strength to undertake such a military action. So, is China’s army strong enough to win a war against Japan?
In a war between China and Japan in which no other countries were involved, China would easily win. Its military is almost ten-times larger than Japans. It has significantly more troops, tanks, ships and combat aircraft.
Below is breakdown of the compared military strengths of China and Japan.
| Country | Number of Active-Duty Soldiers | Number of Reservists | Number of Main Battle Tanks | Number of Combat Aircraft | Number of Warships |
| China | 2,185,000 | 1,170,000 | 5,650 | 1,747+ | 355 |
| Japan | 247,150 | 56,000 | 580 | 606 | 76 |
All data from Wikipedia
As we can see, China has more than two million active-duty soldiers. This is compared to Japan’s quarter of a million. The enormous size of the China’s army would make an invasion of Japan an easy victory for them.
In terms of armour, China has almost three times the number of tanks than Japan. Although there are arguments that tanks are less useful in modern wars and they are vulnerable to air attack, the sheer superiority in number of tanks China has over Japan would give them a huge advantage in an invasion.
China has almost three times the number of combat aircraft than Japan. This would allow them to dominate the skies and support their ground troops during an invasion. Its likely this would be a defining factor in a Chinese victory.
At sea, China has over four times the number of warships than Japan. This would be crucial in any invasion as China would need to dominate the seas around the Japanese islands in order to launch a ground invasion. As we can see from a simple comparison of their military strengths, China could easily launch an invasion of Japan and conquer it.
Why Would China Invade Japan?
A Chinese invasion of Japan is very unlikely. However, tensions between the two countries are high and there is always the risk that a false move could result in a conflict. With that said, under what circumstances could we see China invade Japan? Let’s look at some of the most probable:
- Island disputes
- Control of the East China Sea
- Part of a wider regional conflict
Now’s let’s expand in these a bit.
Island Disputes
The Senkaku Islands lie to the south of Japan and north of Taiwan. They are about 200 miles of the Chinese coast. The islands are part of Japan but China disputes this and lays claim to the islands. The islands are strategically important for both countries. Fishing rights and oil reserves also make control of the islands highly beneficial.
It is possible, although unlikely, that China could invade Japan to take control of the Senkaku Islands. In this instance China would probably not launch the full-scale invasion of Japan but would seize control of the islands in a military strike.
East China Sea
The East China Sea is between China, South Korea and Japan. There has been long-running dispute over control of these waters. China and Japan vie for dominance of the strategically important ocean. A build-up of the military bases in the area and increased naval presence by both Japan and China could see a conflict arise if tensions are not diffused.
Regional Conflict
Tensions between China and the US have deteriorated in recent years. There are also worries that China plans to invade Taiwan. Japan has said it would likely come to Taiwan’s aid if this happened. There is also a good chance that America would fight a war with China over Taiwan.
If a major war broke-out in East Asia, there is a chance that China could invade Japan as part of that conflict. It is unlikely, but there are significant fears that with tensions high, a mistake could lead to a major war in the region.
What Would Happen If China Attacked Japan?
So, now we know that China has the military strength of invade and conquer Japan, we also know in what circumstances a Chinese attack on Japan may happen. But what would happen if China did invade Japan, and what would a war between Japan and China look like?
A Chinese invasion of Japan would be a huge military undertaking. It would also likely draw-in countries such as America and South Korea that are Japan’s allies. A Chinese attack on Japan could result in large scale-war with significant destruction and loss of life.
Although China has the military strength of invade Japan, it would need to mobilize a large army to do it. A Chinese invasion of Japan would likely involve huge numbers of Chinese forces landing by sea and air. It would likely begin with a cyber-attack and missile strikes against key military and civilian sites in Japan.
An important factor when considering how a Chinese invasion of Japan might play-out is that America is treaty-bound to defend Japan. The US also has military bases in Japan and around 55,000 troops stationed there. This would mean any Chinese attack on Japan would likely also involve a war with America.
Has China Ever Invaded Japan?
Japan and China have fought wars throughout history. The largest and most recent was the Second Sino-Japanese War, this saw Japan invade China during World War Two. So with such as history of conflict between the two countries, has China ever invaded Japan?
China has never invaded Japan. Although there have been battles between China and Japan dating back to the year 600, these have either been at sea or fought in Korea or China. There has never been a land battle between Japanese and Chinese forces on Japanese soil.
Throughout history, China and Japan have fought many conflicts. They vied for control of the Korean peninsula as well as control of the seas between them. However, historically China has never had the incentive, political will or military capabilities to invade Japan.
Is Japan Afraid Of China?
Tensions in East Asia are rising. As China becomes more exertive, countries in the region must change their outlook. With that said, relations between China and Japan are not necessarily bad – they are not always good, but the countries have remained relatively close. However, with China projecting its power more, is Japan now afraid of China?
Japan views China with caution but is not afraid of it. Japan’s role as a major world economy, as well as it’s alliance with the US, means that it does not need to fear China. Japan and China also have close economic ties that bind the nations closely. This reduces Japan’s alarm towards China.
The rise of China has in some ways benefited Japan. Business ties have grown and trade between the countries is becoming more important. However, China is now becoming more dominant – raising again it’s claims to islands in the East and South China Sea, as well as making threats against Taiwan that may cause war. China’s threat to regional stability is a cause for concern for Japan.