NATO and China are two of the most powerful forces in the world. We’ve put together this guide to explain the relationship between China and the military alliance, explore their respective strengths and answer questions about what the future might hold for NATO and China…
Introduction
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), founded in 1949, is a military alliance of 30 North American and European countries. It aims to protect the freedom and democracy of countries within the alliance. NATO provides a collective security guarantee to its members, meaning that all will come to the defense of any NATO country that is attacked.
The member states of NATO are Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, and the United States.
The Peoples Republic of China is the most populous country in the world and the second largest economy. In recent decades China has risen to become a major global power. However, as China’s influence has grown it has begun to challenge the dominance of Western powers. As an authoritarian state looking to roll-back Western hegemony, are NATO and China in direct competition?
Is NATO Stronger Than China?
The first question to ask when assessing a possible conflict between China and NATO is which is stronger militarily. In many ways, this is key to understanding relations between China and the military alliance.
NATO is a stronger military force than China. It has over one million more soldiers, and another million more reservists. NATO has almost three times the number of tanks than China, as well as three times the combat aircraft. NATO has one hundred and fifty more warships than China.
…but that’s just an overview. Now, let’s look at the data. Below is a breakdown of NATO’s military strength compared to China’s:
| Country | Number of Active-Duty Soldiers | Number of Reservists | Number of Main Battle Tanks | Number of Combat Aircraft | Number of Warships |
| China | 2,185,000 | 1,170,000 | 5,650 | 1,747 | 355 |
| NATO | 3,261,760 | 2,106,850 | 14,971 | 6,071 | 503 |
All data from Wikipedia
As we can see, the combined armies of all NATO members are considerably stronger than China’s Armed Forces.
The number of troops NATO has is a key factor in determining how strong it is compared to China’s military. With over one million more frontline troops, it is clear that NATO is much more powerful than China. NATO is also able to add many more reservists than China, contributing to its overall military strength.
The combined armies of NATO have almost 10,000 more main battle tanks than China does. This would allow them to dominate a battle and field much more armour at any given time than China could match.
Air power is key in modern conflicts. The military that controls the sky and can achieve air superiority historically as overcome almost any military force. NATO has over 4,000 more combat aircraft than China does. This would allow them to dominate the skies in any conflict between them.
China has almost 150 less warships than NATO does. This is another factor that makes it clear that NATO is a stronger military force than China.
Could NATO Defeat China In A War?
The overall size of a military force is often not enough to determine the outcome of a conflict. Although NATO is clearly larger military than China, what would happen if a war broke-out between them? Does NATO’s larger military mean it could defeat China?
It is not clear if NATO could defeat China in a war. Although NATO is a larger military force, factors such as population size, geography and differing political systems could be key to determining the outcome of a conflict. China and NATO are also both nuclear powers, meaning both could be destroyed in a war.
If you simply compare the size of the Chinese armed forces against the combined strength of NATO, it would appear that China would lose a war.
However, there are other factors that would likely determine the outcome of a war between NATO and China.
China’s population is significantly larger than NATO’s. It has over 1.4 billion people, compared to the combined populations of NATO countries – 946 million. This would mean China could mobilize more people in a total war against NATO.
Geographically, the combined territory of all the countries NATO is larger than China – although both are enormous. China is also one contiguous territory, whereas NATO is divided across the North Atlantic. Geography plays a key role in the outcome of conflicts. Depending on where any war between China and NATO was fought, it could be a defining factor.
China and the NATO countries have very different political systems. As democracies, NATO countries need significant buy-in from their populations in order to take on a major conflict. China, as an authoritarian power, can mobilize its population behind a conflict more easily. These differences may also be crucial in determining the outcome of any war between China and NATO.
Why Would There Be A War Between China And NATO?
Ok, we’ve assessed China’s military strength against NATO’s. It appears clear that the combined armies of NATO countries are stronger than China. However, that does not stop the two from going to war. But what could cause a war between China and NATO?
There is almost no circumstances where NATO and China would go to war. NATO is a defensive alliance of European and North American countries. Therefore, China would need to attack Europe for a full war to breakout between China and NATO.
…but that’s just an overview. Let’s explore this a bit more.
China is not going to attack Europe or North America. It is not in their strategic interest to do so and there is little reason why they would. As a defensive alliance, NATO would also not attack China. NATO’s aim is to provide collective security to European countries and does not officially take aggressive military action.
The only realistic circumstances that could see NATO countries fight a war with China is over the island of Taiwan. China claims Taiwan as an integral part of its territory. The island has been self-governing since 1949 and a democracy since 1996. China has stated clearly that it will reunite with Taiwan and is willing to do this by force if necessary.
Although not officially an American ally, there is a chance the US would come to Taiwan’s defense if it was attacked by China. However, not all NATO countries would defend Taiwan. This means that if a war did break-out over Taiwan, it would likely be between China and some Western countries (as well as possibly other countries in East Asia), but not against the entire NATO alliance.
Does China Hate NATO?
In order to fully understand any possible conflict between China and NATO, we need to think about how China views NATO. Does China actually hate NATO, and if so, why?
There are some in China who hate NATO. There is strong public opinion in China against the alliance following the 1999 bombing by NATO of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Many in China strongly dislike NATO due to this action.
As part of the Kosovo War, NATO launched a military operation against Yugoslavia and the regime of Slobodan Milošević. On May 7th 1999, four NATO missiles hit the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, killing three Chinese journalists.
In China, public opinion was outraged by the attack on its diplomatic mission. Extensive protests were held across the country against NATO. Chinese opinion turned further against the alliance when later newspaper reports suggested the attack was a deliberate action by NATO as they thought the embassy was being used to send communications for the Yugoslav army. The American CIA later confirmed that the bombing was directed by them but continued to state it was an accident.
The NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade is a major cause of hatred for the alliance among some of the Chinese population. However, the Chinese government does not have an official policy against NATO and it cannot be said that everyone in China has a hatred for the alliance.
Is China Against NATO?
Ok, so although there is definite animosity in China against NATO it’s clear that China doesn’t officially hate the alliance. However, is China opposed to NATO? And why would China be against it?
China is not formally opposed to NATO. However, China has at times expressed opposition to NATO expansion in Europe. China sees the US as its main strategic opponent and the formation of alliances in Asia is considered a greater threat to China than NATO.
In order to understand China’s position on NATO, is it important to know that China sees NATO as a crucial foundation of Western global dominance, which China opposes.
China’s geo-political aims are to reduce Western influence and limit the power of America in the global international order. NATO is a European focused organization and therefore China is not directly opposed to it. However, China sees NATO as key to America’s global dominance and therefore a reduction in NATO’s influence would be a benefit to China.
Crucially, China strongly opposes the formation of a NATO-type alliance in Asia. As China wishes to reduce America’s influence in the region, the creation of a formal alliance between the US and Western-aligned countries in East Asia would be directly opposed to China’s strategic interests.
Is China A Threat To NATO?
So, it’s clear that China is not formally opposed to NATO, but it does see NATO as a key part of the Western world order. In general, China would like Western influence to be rolled-back and for it to create its own spheres of influence. Ok, so does that mean China is a threat to NATO?
China is not a direct threat to NATO. There are several reasons for this:
- China cannot attack Europe or North America
- No NATO members in Asia
- China has no claims to NATO territory
Let’s go over each of these…
China Cannot Attack Europe
It is almost impossible for China to attack Europe or North America. Apart from a nuclear strike or a conventional inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), China lacks the military strength to launch an attack over such a distance. It is also almost impossible to conceive China launching an assault against either the mainland United States or Europe. This is a major reason why China is not seen as a significant threat to NATO.
No NATO Members In Asia
NATO is an alliance of European and North American countries. No countries in Asia are members of NATO. Simply, the enormous distance between China and any NATO member, combined with China’s inability to project its military strength to Europe or North America means China is little direct threat to NATO.
China Has No Claims To NATO Territory
Importantly, there is almost no reason why China would attack NATO. There are no territorial disputes between China and NATO countries. China’s main land dispute is over Taiwan, which is not a NATO member.
Will China Fight NATO?
Although we can say that China is not a direct threat to NATO, this does not mean that conflict is impossible. As tensions rise, especially between China and key NATO members such as the US, could we see a conflict between NATO and China?
A war between China and NATO is extremely unlikely. Although tensions between China and the West have risen in recent years, a full-scale conflict between China and NATO is highly improbable.
For there to be a war between China and NATO, China would have to attack a NATO country. Article 5 of the NATO treaty says that an attack on any NATO member is an attack on all. However, China is thousands of miles away from any NATO member and it is almost impossible to conceive China launching an assault on a NATO member state.
However, with that said, tensions between China and the US are rising. There is the definite possibility of conflict between the two over Taiwan. It is unlikely, although not impossible, that China launches a pre-emptive strike against US forces in Asia as part of an assault on Taiwan. The question would be, would this be seen as an attack on NATO or not?
It is highly unlikely that NATO as an alliance would be drawn into a conflict between China and the US. Some NATO members, such as Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro, are closely linked economically to China. Others would be unwilling to join a US-China war, seeing it as not in their interest. Therefore, there almost certainly won’t be a war between NATO and China.
Why Is China Not In NATO?
A final point we should consider when discussing China and NATO is why isn’t China a NATO member? As one of the most powerful military forces in the world, wouldn’t China be an asset to the alliance? Actually, there are a two clear reasons why China is not in NATO:
- China is not in Europe or North America
- China is not a democracy
Let’s break each of these down:
China Is Not In Europe or North America
Only countries in Europe or North America can join NATO. It is an alliance of North American and European countries designed to ensure the security of Europe. Countries in Asia cannot be members of NATO. This is a key reason why China is not a member state.
China Is Not a Democracy
One of the main objectives of NATO is to protect democratic countries. China is not a democracy. Only fully democratic counties can be members of NATO. The alliance was established to counter the Soviet Union in Europe.
During the Cold War, NATO was a major anti-communist alliance. As a communist country more closely aligned with the Soviets during the Cold War, there was no possibility for China to join the alliance. With the Cold War over, NATO has focused more on protecting democratic nations – a further reason why China cannot join.