China and Russia are two of the largest and most powerful countries in the world. The two countries are not allies but are moving closer as both have a strong anti-Western stance on many issues.
Historically, China and Russia have had a cold relationship, even fighting a short war in 1969. Today, a full-scale war between the two is highly unlikely. However, nothing is impossible, and with diverging interests in Russia’s Far East and Central Asia, a conflict is always a posibility. But what would a major war between China and Russia look like? And who would likely win?
It is likely China would in a war against Russia. The size of the Chinese military combined with their larger economy and greater population would probably be the defining factors in a major conflict between the two countries. However, a war between Russia and China is extremely unlikely.
So, now we’ve had an overview, let’s look in more detail at what a war between China and Russia would look like, and how each side could potentially achieve victory…
Who Has A Stronger Army, Russia Or China?
China has a stronger military than Russia. China has significantly more soldiers, tanks and aircraft than Russia does. Although Russia and China’s navies are equal size and Russia has more tanks in reserve, it is clear Russia’s army is weaker than China’s.
However, when fully assessing which side would in a full-scale conflict – Russia or China, we first need to compare the two countries military strengths.
| Country | Number of Active-Duty Soldiers | Number of Reservists | Number of Main Battle Tanks | Number of Combat Aircraft | Number of Warships |
| China | 2,185,000 | 1,170,000 | 5,650 | 1,747+ | 355 |
| Russia | 1,015.000 | 2,000,000 | 1,200 | 950 | 352 |
All data from Wikipedia
The above table breaks down the total size of both countries’ militaries. As we can see, China has a significantly stronger armed forces than Russia. Let’s look over the details…
China has over one million more active soldiers than Russia. In terms of soldiers alone, China has one of the largest armies in the world.
This would give China an enormous advantage over Russia if the two went to war. It would allow them to put more troops into the field, and also allow them to open up multiple fronts that Russia could well fail to field enough troops against.
Russia has more troops in reserve than China. This would go some way to counterbalance the larger number of active soldiers that China has, if a major war broke-out. However, reserve troops are less well trained, motivated and often have poorer equipment than front-line active personnel.
It is not clear whether the larger number of reservists in the Russian army would be enough to counter-act China.
When it comes to armor, China has an enormous advantage over Russia. With almost five times as many main battle tanks, China would be able to field so many armored divisions it is hard to see how Russia could repel their advance.
However, Russia is reported to have up to 12,000 tanks in reserve. These are older and more outdated models, but if they could be brought to the field, they would go a long way to matching China’s strength in terms of armor.
China also out numbers Russia in the number of combat aircraft. Air superiority is vital in modern conflicts. Often whoever controls the skies ultimately wins the war. As China can likely defeat the Russian air force as they have significantly more air power, it is highly likely China would defeat Russia if a conflict broke out between them.
Finally, at sea China and Russia are almost evenly matched. With navies both totaling around 500 warships, it is not clear which side would win a naval conflict. However, as China and Russia share 2,500 miles of border, it is almost certain any war between the two would mainly be fought on the land. Naval warfare would be unlikely to determine the outcome of a war between China and Russia.
A War Between Russia and China: Who Would be Defeated?
As we’ve seen, China has a much strong military than Russia. However, both countries have huge armed forces and both are nuclear powers. Although China would likely have the upper hand in any conflict between the two, is it possible for Russia to defeat China?
It is unlikely Russia could win a war against China. Russia’s smaller army, weaker economy and smaller population all mean that it would be difficult for them to defeat China. Russia’s infrastructure is also less well equipped for mobilising an army large enough to fight a war with China.
Now, let’s take a quick look at each of these points…
As we’ve discussed above, China’s armed forces are much larger than Russia’s. Both sides have modern armies and are incorporating new technologies. Russia has a well-developed domestic arms industry that support its military, but China also has the ability to make advanced weapons technologies. Simply in-terms of military power, China could probably easily defeat Russia.
Russia is much poorer than China. It is the eleventh largest economy in the world, against China being the second. China and Russia actually have almost equal GDP per capita – 10,500 USD for China and 10,100 USD for Russia. However, the overall size of the Chinese economy dwarfs Russia’s. This would give them a major advantage in any conflict.
China is the most populous country in the world, with around 1.4 billion people. Essentially, this means China has more people to call upon in times of war. By comparison, Russia has a population of 144 million, about one tenth the size of China’s. Population size is not always the defining factor in a conflict, however, the size of China’s population against Russia’s gives them a significant advantage if a major war broke-out between the two.
Russia is enormous. This would make a Chinese invasion difficult. However, Russia’s infrastructure is poor, especially in the far east away from the Russian heartlands. This would make moving troops to fight a war with China difficult.
Russia does station significant numbers of troops in the east. However, currently most of the Russian military is focused on the west. Russia may face struggles to bring its forces to the field to combat an attack by China . This could mean it faces defeat.
What Would A War Between China and Russia Look Like?
China and Russia are not formal allies. However, they both generally have an anti-Western standpoint. Although historically the relationship between Russia and China has at times been strained, there is essentially no chance that they would go to war with each other. However, international politics is in a state of flux and Russia and China did fight a brief border war in 1969. So, although a war between the two is extremely unlikely, what would it look like if it did happen?
A small-scale war between Russia and China could probably be contained with only limited military casualties. However, a full war between China and Russia would result in huge numbers of deaths, both civilian and military. There would also be widespread destruction of cities in both countries.
With the said, let’s look a bit more detail…
There are two scenario that could play-out if Russia and China fought a conflict. The first is a small-scale border war, similar to the conflict between the Soviet Union and China in 1969. The second is a full-scale war seeing both sides trying to invade and conquer the other. Both are incredibly unlikely.
In 1969, the Soviet Union and China fought a seven-month conflict over disputed territories, mainly in and around Manchuria. This conflict ended when both sides agreed to the status quo. However, several hundred people died on both sides and relations between the two countries took decades to recover.
If Russia and China fought a small-scale war it would likely be similar to the 1969 conflict. Small and local engagements would take place and no formal war would likely be declared. The death-toll would remain low if the conflict could be contained. Both sides governments would try to mediate an end to the conflict and it is likely neither side would make significant gains.
As the border dispute between Russia and China is no longer a contentious issue, this scenario is highly unlikely.
The second scenario for a very very unlikely, but not impossible, conflict between Russia and China would be a large war between the two countries. There are not many reasons why China and Russia would go to war. However, break-away provinces in Russia’s far east or attempts to control Mongolia seem the most likely. Chinese encouragement into Central Asia – seen as being in Russia’s sphere of influence, could also see the two sides going to war.
The full-scale war between Russia and China would be catastrophic. Hundreds of thousands would likely die. As both sides are nuclear powers, there is also the potential for millions to die if these weapons were used.
A total war between Russia and China would likely be fought away from population centers, as both countries have huge sparsely populated areas between them. However, if the conflict reached near to major urban centers then there is the potential for millions of refugees to be created. Russia would likely call upon its allies to assist in a conflict against China. The Collective Security Organization (CSTO) allies Russia with countries such as Belarus, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. If Russia were attacked by China, countries in the CSTO would likely fight alongside Russian forces.