Since the late 1980s, China has risen to become an incredibly powerful and influential country globally. However, the rise of China has been seen by some in the West as a threat.
As China openly challenges the global position of Europe, some experts warn of the risk of conflict. But what would a conflict between Europe and China look like? Could we ever see China try and invade and take over Europe?
China could not invade Europe. The enormous distance between China and Europe would make an invasion impossible. China also lacks the military capabilities to undertake an invasion of Europe. China has no interest in invading Europe and it would almost certainly never happen.
Now we’ve had an overview, let’s look at the data and see why China could not invade Europe…
Does China Have a Stronger Military Than Europe?
So, it’s clear that China could not invade Europe. But what if there was a major conflict between European countries and China? Would a combined army made up of every country in Europe be strong enough to defeat China?
China’s military is almost the same strength as the armies of all the countries in Europe combined – if you exclude Russia. Including Russia, Europe would have a much stronger army than China.
…that’s an overview. Now let’s look at a comparison of Europe’s military strength against China’s…
| Country | Number of Active-Duty Soldiers | Number of Reservists | Number of Main Battle Tanks | Number of Combat Aircraft | Number of Warships |
| China | 2,185,000 | 1,170,000 | 5,650 | 1,747+ | 355 |
| Europe (Excluding Russia) | 1,855,810 | 2,687,530 | 7,711 | 2,554 | 244 |
| Europe (Including Russia) | 2,869,810 | 4,687,530 | 21,241 | 3,933 | 384 |
All data from Wikipedia
As we can see, a combined European army, excluding Russia, has only 200,000 soldiers less than China. However, it would have almost a million and a half more reservists to call upon. A combined European army would also have over 1,000 more main battle tanks and over 700 more combat aircraft. However, China’s navy would be significantly stronger with over 100 more warships.
If you include the Russian armed forces in a combined European army, and compare them to China’s, then it is clear China would lose a war against Europe. With half a million more soldiers, four times the reservists, twice the combat aircraft and 30 more warships, a combined European army that included Russia would be enormous compared to the Chinese armed forces.
However, in many ways what we’ve been looking at is unrealistic. Europe is made up of 44 countries. Not all are allied and some could even be considered more closely allied to China than countries in Western Europe. This means there is almost no way that every country in Europe would ally together to fight against China.
A more realistic scenario is a war between China and NATO – although this is still extremely unlikely.
NATO is a military alliance made up of many countries in Europe, as well as the United States and Canada. So, if China invaded Europe and NATO fought back, who would win?
| Country | Number of Active-Duty Soldiers | Number of Reservists | Number of Main Battle Tanks | Number of Combat Aircraft | Number of Warships |
| China | 2,185,000 | 1,170,000 | 5,650 | 1,747+ | 355 |
| NATO | 3,261,760 | 2,106,850 | 14,971 | 6,071 | 503 |
All data from Wikipedia
As we can see, NATO is significantly stronger than China militarily. With over a million more active troops and another million more reservists, NATO could defend Europe from a Chinese attack. NATO also has almost three times the number of main battle tanks than China, as well as three times the combat aircraft. NATO has over 150 more warships than China does.
It’s clear that a major reason China could not invade Europe is because of the strength of NATO’s military power.
Why Would China Attack Europe?
As we’ve said, a Chinese invasion of Europe is almost impossible. However, are there any circumstances in which we could see a Chinese attack on a European country?
There is no reason why China would attack Europe. In a major conflict, Europe would be of little strategic importance to China.
Although tensions between the West, including some countries in Europe, and China are high at this time, there is essentially no circumstances in which we see a Chinese invasion of Europe.
Even in the worst-case scenario – a major conflict between the US and European allies and China, it is inconceivable that China launches an invasion of Europe.
If a major conflict did breakout between China and the West, it would be focused on the Pacific region, likely involving Taiwan, Japan and the Korean peninsula. These would be the strategic areas to control in a war between China and the Western countries. As a result, even if a major war did occur, China still wouldn’t invade Europe.
How Would China Invade Europe?
Ok, so a Chinese invasion of Europe isn’t going to happen. There is very little reason why it would happen. However, let’s ignore these points for a minute and think about if China did invade Europe, how would it do it?
If China invaded Europe it would most likely attack overland through Russia. However, the enormous distance between China and Europe would make an overland invasion extremely difficult. The Chinese navy is not strong enough to support an invasion of Europe from the sea.
There are only two ways for China to invade Europe, one option is by land, the other by sea.
A land invasion of Europe by China would likely go through Russia. The flat terrain makes moving an army through Russia easier than invading through Central Asia. However, an invasion of Europe through Russia would be impossible for China.
An invasion of Europe by sea would also be impossible for China. The Chinese navy does not have the capabilities to move an army large enough to attack Europe thousands of miles across the ocean. The lines of communication and supply for an invasion would also be vulnerable, and China lacks territory close to Europe that it could use to support an invasion.
Has China Ever Invaded Europe?
Ok, so now let’s get some historical perspective. We know China couldn’t invade Europe, and really that there are no circumstances in which they would try, but what about in the past? Has China ever attacked Europe at any time in history?
China has never invaded Europe. This is no time in history that China has had armies in Europe or fought a European country on the continent. All wars between European countries and China have been fought in China.
There have been many wars fought between China and European countries. These include:
- First Opium War (1839 – 1842)
- Second Opium War (1856 – 1860)
- Sino-French War (1884 – 1885)
- Boxer Rebellion (1899 – 1901)
However, all of these wars took place in China. There has never been a Chinese army that fought in Europe.
From around the year 1600 to the beginning of the 19th Century, China was among the most advanced societies in the world. However, at this time there was very little connectivity between Europe and Asia, and China had no incentive to march an army as far as Europe.
China became weaker from around the year 1800. An inability to modernize and a lack of internal cohesion meant that Europe began to pull ahead technologically. By the middle of the 19th Century, European countries began interfering in China and taking advantage of its comparative weakness. As a result, conflict between European countries and Chinese forces occurred, but they all took place in China, not in Europe.