North Korea is seen as one of America’s greatest strategic threats. The rogue regime is nuclear armed, and often threatens US allies South Korea and Japan.
North Korea aims to develop a nuclear weapon that can reach the continental United States, America has vowed this is red line. A clash seems inevitable, but could we see America invade North Korea? Does the US have a military capabilities to? And what would an American invasion of North Korea look like?
America has the military strength to invade North Korea. However, a US invasion of the DPRK risks major conflict and high loss of life. It also risks drawing other countries such as South Korea, China and Japan into the war. For these reasons, America is unlikely to launch an invasion of North Korea.
Now we’ve had an overview, let’s look more at whether the US could invade North Korea, and what an American invasion of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) might look like…
Is America’s Military Stronger Than North Koreas?
The North Koran nuclear programme has long been a serious foreign policy issue for the United States. America has drawn a red line on North Korea developing a nuclear weapon and the missile capabilities to hit the mainland US. America has threatened military action against North Korea but hasn’t taken any. Why is this? Is it because America doesn’t actually have the military strength to attack North Korea?
| Country | Number of Active-Duty Soldiers | Number of Reservists | Number of Main Battle Tanks | Number of Combat Aircraft | Number of Warships |
| United States | 1,388,100 | 844,050 | 6,209 | 2,628 | 490 |
| North Korea | 1,280,000 | 600,000 | 3,500 | 537 | 630 |
All data from Wikipedia
As we can see from the above breakdown of the military strength of the US military vs North Korea, it shows that America and the DPRK have around the same number of active troops. However, America has military personnel based all over the world.
Although America has a huge number of front-line soldiers, it would have to pull significant numbers away from other locations in order to mount a force large enough to invade North Korea. The DPRK on the other hand, could use all its military strength to repel an invasion.
The United States has almost double the number of tanks than North Korea. If America dedicated its full military force to an invasion of North Korea, it would have far superior armour.
Air superiority is key in modern warfare. In many conflicts, whoever controls the sky wins the battle. America has over five times as many combat aircraft as North Korea. This could be well be the defining factor in an American victory if it did invade the DPRK.
North Korea has a larger naval fleet than the US. This is would definitely give them an advantage when trying to repel any attack. However, the North Korean fleet is old and often outdated. It also lacks aircraft carriers and modern submarines. Although outnumbered, it’s likely the US Navy would defeat the North Koreans at sea.
Although looking at the numbers it appears that the US and North Korea are more evenly matched in terms of military strength, the far superior equipment, technology and training of the American military gives them an enormous advantage over the armed forces of the DPRK. Although any invasion of North Korea would be an enormous challenge, it is likely the US does have the military strength and capabilities to do it.
Why hasn’t America Invaded North Korea?
North Korea has been described as a rogue state by the US. It was famously included in George Bush’s Axis of Evil speech in 2002. The North Korean regime is among the most brutal in the world, and regularly makes acts of aggression against its neighbours. North Korea is actively building nuclear weapons and missile technology with the stated aim of making the continental US within reach of a nuclear strike. So, the question has to be, why hasn’t America done anything?
America hasn’t invaded North Korea for four main reasons. These are:
- The likely high cost in America lives
- The risk of a nuclear attack on South Korea or Japan
- The risk of war with China
- Diplomatic efforts are still ongoing
Let’s take a quick look at each of these…
High Cost In America Lives
North Korea has an enormous army. Although lacking modern equipment, it is still an effective fighting force. It would also be highly motivated to repel an American invasion. A US invasion of North Korea would result in significant casualties. Essentially, the US isn’t willing to stomach the number of lives lost it would take to successfully remove the regime of King Jong-Un.
Risk of Nuclear Attack
The DPRK is a nuclear armed state. Although it likely lacks a war-head small enough to fit on rockets that can reach the continental United States, it is thought to have the nuclear capabilities to hit South Korea or Japan. At the very least, North Korea could use its nuclear arsenal against an invading US force. The risk of a nuclear attack by North Korea is simply too great that it acts a sufficient deterrent against an American invasion.
Risk of War With China
China is North Korea’s strongest ally. When the regime in North Korea came close to collapse in the Korean War, Communist China sent forces in support that ultimately turned the tide of the war and ensured the regimes survival. It is likely China would do this again. China sees North Korea as a key buffer between their border and American allies. With tens of thousands of American troops in South Korea, China wants to avoid a context in which these troops could move up to its border. The risk of a major war with China if the US invaded North Korea is too great, and this is a major reason why the US hasn’t acted.
Diplomatic Efforts Ongoing
America’s main foreign policy objective in relation to North Korea is to stop is acquiring nuclear weapons that can reach the mainland US. The current thinking is that a mixture of tough sanctions and diplomatic efforts can deter North Korea from continuing its pursuit. Although these efforts may prove futile, America hasn’t invaded North Korea because it feels that a diplomatic solution to the crisis can still be found.
Will the US Invade North Korea?
The government in North Korea is regarded as among the worst in the world. Its repression against its own people is almost unparalleled in modern times. North Korea’s threats against countries in the region, as well as the US, makes the risks of conflict on the Korean peninsula extremely high. But as North Korea moves towards developing nuclear weapons that can reach the mainland US, will America take action and invade the DPRK?
It is unlikely America will invade North Korea. A war with North Korea would likely be huge in scale and cost many American lives. It also risks drawing in other regional powers such as China and South Korea. North Korea also has nuclear weapons that it could use against South Korea or Japan, making an attack by America high unlikely.
However, America has stated that military action against North Korea is a possibility. Although America is strongly against the brutality of the regime of Kim Jong-Un in North Korea, it is the threat of the United States coming into range of North Korean nuclear weapons that is the most concerning in Washington.
There are many in America’s foreign policy establishment that believe the US should take military action against North Korea before they obtain the nuclear capabilities that would make taking any action against them risking all-out nuclear war. If these voices win out, then a US attack on North Korea would become much more likely.
What Would Happen If The US Attacked North Korea?
So, we’ve established that the US has the military capabilities to invade North Korea. We also know the reason why it hasn’t taken action as well as what the likelihood is of an American attack on the DPRK. Now, let’s look at what would happen if the US did invade North Korea.
A small, targeted US attack on North Korea would likely result in limited retaliations by the DRPK, probably against South Korea and Japan. A large-scale attack on North Korea by the US would result in major war, with China probably joining the conflict.
Really, there are two likely scenarios that would play-out if the US attacked North Korea. They mainly depend on the scale of a US assault and the reaction of the North Korean regime and their allies. Let’s go over the mostly likely ones.
Firstly, if America took on a full-scale invasion of North Korea, with the aim of removing the regime, it would result in an enormous war. Ten of thousands of American troops would likely die and potentially hundreds of thousands North Korean soldiers and civilians.
The conflict would very likely spill-over into South Korea, resulting in widespread death and destruction. A nuclear attack by the DPRK on South Korea, Japan or US bases in Guam or Hawaii would also be likely. The scale of death and destruction that a full-scale invasion of North Korea would cause is a major reason why the US hasn’t intervened in the country.
A full invasion of North Korea by the US would likely pull China into the conflict. China is North Korea’s main ally. They intervened to support North Korea during the Korean War and would likely do so again. China also does not want an American ally, and potentially US troops, on its border and so sees North Korea as a key buffer state against this.
The second scenario if the US attacked North Korea would be if America undertook a smaller-more precise action. The US is strongly opposed to North Korea attaining nuclear weapons – especially with the capabilities to reach the continental United States. If the DPRK came close to achieving this technology, America could make precision strikes against North Korea in an attempt to knock-out its nuclear facilities.
It’s unclear exactly what would happen if the US undertook a precision strike on North Korea. It is likely North Korea would respond, probably by launching missile against South Korea and Japan, or making incursions across the border into South Korea. Yeonpyeongdo island would also be under-threat and has been attacked by North Korea in the past as a retaliation for perceived US and South Korean actions.
There is a major risk that retaliations by North Korea could escalate and all out conflict is a real possibility. This is a major reason the US has not taken action to knock-out North Korea’s nuclear facilities.